3/2/20 What Is Going On And What Might Be Coming Next

MUST SEE: REVISED UPDATE ON LONG TERM WAVE POTENTIAL
(aka: is this completely out of the realm of possibility- are we really going here?)

See EOD retrace target  update here.

Update 3/2/20 12:15am: ES 3035.0 zone could be a 'nested leg' resistance area which should be at a lower price than if it were a 'full leg' resistance target. Let's see how the price reacts. (3045.0 / 3098.0 are 'full leg' first / second resistance target zones)

Update 3/2/20 11:30am: 
ES is prodding above the '1/a' label at 3006.0 and reaching for the 38.2% retrace line (3060.0 area)
Global Trading Signal: 'Agitation'- will most likely support the bounce at least for today and a continuation up is expected.

See the explanatory long-term descriptions lower down the page-

Quick note on Friday's closing action- the low held at (ES) 2852.0/2853.0 zone and hit 2996.0 briefly which surpassed label 4/d so watching to see if a retrace gains some traction and then focus on waiting for the next top flag as the expectation is high that more downside is yet to come. 
Short-term picture:

Long term picture:
Decided to republish the following chart under a new heading and add some notes because it probably explains a lot of what is happening and we think it is important to present it for review. The price action this week that has confused many commentators fits almost perfectly with the current leg (small B to C)  that is underway on the SVXY megaphone described (lower right hand corner of chart immediately below). Larger and larger moves are printing as the structure expands and we are at a much bigger scale than in 2015 assuming the 'pattern box' also applies now. Small B-C has more to go and might be followed by small C-D up. The final 'exit' move should be the largest in price and time in this scenario. That move could be another 12-18 months away.

There also remains the question- will SVXY be destroyed in the large B-C leg down in a similar fashion to XIV in the deep "A-down" move in early 2018? SVXY has been modified to use a x -0.5 multiplier which is less than the previous x -1.0 but there is still the mathematical possibility that an extreme move (vix super-spike) could inflict a mortal wound. Let's hope not.

The silver lining could be that another huge leg up somewhere post-exit of box 2 occurs. Interestingly- this scenario could also fit quite closely with what the well-respected Elliott Wave statistician Glenn Neely is presently forecasting for the market (the 'view video' registration request on the link that opens is not ours, it's Glenn's). He has projected higher ultimate highs towards 3500 for the S&P in the current leg. This would fit the SVXY megaphone small D higher target. The prognosis is then for a larger correction ('exit' from box 2?- EW 4) followed by a very strong leg up** to a final grand supercycle top!- EW 5 (or whatever EW people label that wave)- that would be the recovery 'arrow' up after the exit from the box. Phew! Got all that? Not necessarily all bad news! A final huge up leg to arrive somewhere in the future after a correction. Let's stay sharp (in survival mode) until then.

** note that since early 2016, we are probably experiencing a similar type of thrust to the one that might be coming 3-4 years from now- only expected to be much larger! All based on the current prognosis working out of course so keeping that hope alive for now. (could be a 15-20 year up-move from the 'exit' move bottom when that arrives based on simple timing boxes). As always- there will be a report update when some change in outlook needs to be addressed so check back.

Check back for Signals:
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20)
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

 The original post can be seen here.

2/29/20 This Chart Has Been Ignored By Most

Update: See new post today which expands the scenario below with some additional very long-term positive info connected to Glenn Neely's projections going forward.

Quick note on Friday's closing action- the low held at (ES) 2852.0/2853.0 zone and hit 2992.0 briefly which surpassed label 4/d so watching to see if a retrace gains some traction and then focus on waiting for the next top flag as the expectation is high that more downside is yet to come. Nothing to do with viruses, news, politics- those events and the market always occur in sync or with overlaps to a large degree. One does not drive the other. Many of the charts and studies here have demonstrated the precarious set up in the market at various time-frames. Here is another to review. This one has largely been ignored but has always been sitting there (like the sword of Damocles?)-

(see chart)- Note the S&P prices moving almost exponentially at the end of 2017 with the relatively innocuous looking price drop to follow. Now look at what happened to triple inverse vix instrument SVXY (and a similar instrument XIV not shown). Quite a difference between the two declines, yes? XIV eventually got destroyed. Perhaps you recall. Now look at the 'recovery' in SVXY. It is at price levels not seen since 2013. This event was not discussed much at the time other than all the investors that got hurt in the destruction of XIV. Old news by now - not so fast, perhaps it is still relevant. What might this structure be telling us? Why has SVXY not performed a recovery in prices similar to previous advances in 2016/2017? What is different? Yes it was revised to reduce downside destruction in early 2018* and sacrifice some gain potential but still- can't quite resolve why SVXY seems to be permanently beaten down. Yes, percentage-wise it has turned a profit since Feb 2018, sort of. It could hardly be called a stellar rise while VXX (triple long VIX) has truly been pummeled (however- this week VXX has moved up rapidly!).

* SVXY now uses a factor x -0.5 instead of x -1.0 but even with that, shouldn't it show a better overall rise? Market prices had recovered to new all-time highs. Similarly, svxy in the second half of box 1 could not get ahead even when the market temporarily hit highs at the end of 2015. It wasn't until svxy exited out the bottom of the box 1 did it sufficiently correct to recover dramatically. Similar set up now? And pray tell, what if the market goes with it if/when it exits out the bottom of the box? Look at the scale of this structure. Brrrr. Feel the cooling effect. We would hope to be wrong but ignoring evidence does not help. Look at what it is doing now just with leg smaller B-C underway. Big moves will put everyone on edge and looking everywhere for answers. Staying focused on the signals is the only way to have any kind of leverage in these conditions.

Let's break it down-

Look at the three boxes: the pattern box to the left and boxes 1 and 2. There are many reasons to consider this might be a set up that needs to be watched. If box 2 is at point (large A) similar to box 1 back in 2015- there could be rough waters ahead. A megaphone that began in Jan 2018 may have the current down leg to complete (smaller C first chart), then back up to (smaller D first chart), then out the bottom of the box 2 similar to box 1. (Alternate is to exit the bottom of the box after smaller C is hit but that does not fit other supporting criteria currently being used so it remains a weaker possibility at the moment). Then we might see a real recovery in SVXY and the market that declined along with it but first however- even if this does happen, it will most likely be a multi-year event. Just reporting an observation here but there is a lot of supporting evidence for this scenario to play out. Some of the previous studies using other criteria have eluded to the strength in the current action as far as the market threats and perhaps this event should no longer be seen as having passed by into history and no longer relevant today. There seems to be much bigger structures being worked out. The market will draw it's own 'pictograph' eventually- meanwhile the appropriate behavior is to believe the established signals that have a proven track record.

The silver lining could be that another huge leg up somewhere post-exit of box 2 occurs. Interestingly- this scenario could also fit quite closely with what the well-respected Elliott Wave statistician Glenn Neely is presently forecasting for the market (the 'view video' registration request that opens is not us, it's Glenn's). He has projected higher ultimate highs towards 3500 for the S&P in the current leg. This would fit the SVXY megaphone small D higher target. The prognosis is then for a larger correction ('exit' from box 2?)- EW 4, followed by a huge leg up** to a final grand supercycle top!- EW 5 (or whatever EW people label that wave)- that would be the recovery 'arrow' up after the exit from the box. Phew! Got all that? Not necessarily all bad news! A final huge up leg to arrive somewhere in the future. Let's stay sharp (in survival mode) until then.

** note that since early 2016, we are probably experiencing a similar type of thrust to the one that might be coming 3-4 years from now- only expected to be much larger! All based on the current prognosis working out of course so keeping that hope alive for now. (could be a 15-20 year up-move from the 'exit' bottom when that arrives based on simple timing boxes). As always- there will be a report update when some change in outlook needs to be addressed so check back.

Check back for Signals:
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
..and possible bounces/bottoms: (2/28/20)
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/28/20 Short-Term Bottom Target Zone

04:15pm Looks like mostly positive developments for a short-term bottom to form here. Any near-term proportionally scaled lower prices would create a larger divergence to propel prices up. If a retrace occurs from here - it could potentially work it's way up 50% as the closing candles look a good size (3.8% x 2 candles). A retest of the lows may need to happen in order to create a daily histogram bar close to the same size as the current one on the ES MACD. This would produce an attenuating effect on the bar height and be a better set up for a retrace to launch. It is not required to happen that way of course.

Global Trading Signal: 
11:45am The signal may have come through after 36+ hrs of printing non-stop 'Agitation' which timing is typical. Possible price break upwards attempt through very short-term trend line: Need to see follow-through. It is also possible there will be a final lower print at close (or a higher low).

Also note that quite often a short-term bounce interval can be preceded by an 'early' bottom price. One that occurs prior to closing either am or early pm. Not a certainty- just a general observation. Expectations are high that deeper prices will eventually be forthcoming but let's take one move at a time.

Still printing 'Agitation' (36 hrs now) which may support a short-term bounce developing.
Chart of Possible Price Alignments (15min):
If prices don't hold above the (5e zone) then there's likely another structure printing with more downside to come.

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/27/20 Rare Price Structure Could Be Near Short-Term Bounce

Global Trading Signal: 
2/28/20 08:00am Still printing 'Agitation' which may support a short-term bounce developing.
Chart of Possible Price Alignments (15min):
If prices don't hold above the (5e zone) then there's likely another structure printing with more downside to come.

2/27/2005:10pm Finally got a strong signal that may bring us a short-term bottom soon.
Also there seems to be a rare alignment that looks like a fit. It's a very long fib extension laid out below. Not exactly sure how this one is going to play since the only positive divergence is a 4hr RSI and a small one on the 4hr Fisher Transform. 

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/27/20 A Long Way To Go Overall

Global Trading Signal: 

05:10pm Finally got a strong signal that may bring us a short-term bottom soon.
Also there seems to be a rare alignment that looks like a fit. It's a very long fib extension laid out below. Not exactly sure how this one is going to play since the only positive divergence is a 4hr RSI.

12:28pm Attempting 'Agitation' again- there may be a serious attempt at a very short-term bottom soon if this signal persists much longer.

10:50am EST. Looks like the signal made an attempt to gain some traction regarding 'Agitation' for 4 hrs today but could not hold on to it. The continuing price decline has been supported by the lack of any meaningful 'Agitation' signal in this indicator for a very long time now. Also- the signal is a produced by a very sophisticated program and it has been determined to mostly believe it as is evident by the current situation.

Chart is just for a quick estimate possibility. Nothing to do with long term. Label shown as '3/c in the white square could also be a '1/a' of a larger degree.

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/26/20 After Hours Wave Labels/Target Speculations

2/27/20
Global Trading Signal: 10:50am EST. Looks like the signal made an attempt to gain some traction regarding 'Agitation' for 4 hrs today but could not hold on to it. The continuing price decline has been supported by the lack of any meaningful 'Agitation' signal in this indicator for a very long time now. Also- the signal is a produced by a very sophisticated program and we have learned to believe it as is evident by the current situation.

Chart is just for a quick estimate possibility. Nothing to do with long term. Label shown as '3/c in the white square could also be a '1/a' of a larger degree.

Original Post:

Update: 2/27/20 09:30am Looking at the daily histogram bars on the ES looks to show little to no real shortening so better sit back and wait for that to begin to happen prior to completing any more projected pricing estimates-

Chart 1 is an attempt to assign wave labels on measured moves. Apologies to EW technicians.
Chart 2 is a similar attempt on 4/d to 5/e.

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/26/20 Megaphone Has Traversed 100% Price Geometry

Update: 02:30pm EST. If the bounce fails here at 3091.0 area, then perhaps the 3080.25 target zone might need to be hit first (from lowest chart posted at bottom of page). Both are valid megaphone alignments.

Put/Call ratio: Average is 1.15 which is elevated but below yesterday's (2/25/20) level which was 1.3.

Interestingly- not seeing much in the way of agitation in the Global Trading Signal. We keep tapping on the glass but it seems to be stuck around 'Neutral/Optimism'. Strange but it does not show real concern in the broader trading arena. It has been working correctly of late- the last top was a very clear contributing signal. It's not impossible there could be a malfunction but still got to trust what it says so far. The market does not look like a convincing bottom has taken real hold even if the price is close or has already arrived so that would fit with an 'Optimism' signal in the face of declining prices even at these levels.

There may be a slight improvement in the advance-decline daily numbers but let's wait and see post-close.

Update: 09:43am EST. Looks like megaphone geometry has created another alignment. We have never seen this consistency in this kind of setup- we have only ever theorized that it is likely and do not usually get the kind of repetition of projection that's displaying. A (partial?) retrace up is now on the cards. The central zone of a megaphone often produces resistance to further advancement when approached from below so that area is to be watched for the start of the next leg down.

Global Trading Signal: 'Max Optimism' looks to be making an effort now so the mid-megaphone target could be hit soon.

Here's the chart from 2/20/20 (top flag at 'D'). The current ES o/night low of 3091.0 (so far) is close to the zone that was printed, 3098.75, probably the megaphone has traversed it's symmetry fully without pause if that is the intention on this second leg down. First leg is from top flag on 1/25/20. Expectation is that there will be a minimum of two more descending price legs after a retrace back up, if the retrace actually happens sooner rather than later. Also assuming a decent overlapping retrace. The moves are big and 'normal' charting does not often quantify this scale easily.

See latest short-term price projection estimate below this chart.

Global Trading Signal: showed several hours of 'Agitation' for the first time in this current leg. As was stated- when the signal displays 'Optimism' in the face of descending prices- that is very bearish. Just reading the signals, not making them and the equipment is functioning so it did seem strange. May be finally getting a signal that all is not well which might create a bounce if it continues towards 'Agitation'

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/24/20 More Big Moves Possible- Target Levels

Chart Update: 01:21pm EST:

Update: 2/25/20 11:33 EST Global Trading Signal 'Neutral moving to Optimism'

Update: 2/25/20 10:45 EST While waiting for the proposed numbers in the latest projection chart to crunch one way or the other, it is useful to try and cut through all the hype surrounding the current situation. The following chart should demonstrate quite convincingly that the current behavior scenario began developing months back way before any viruses, primary voting etc showed up. As difficult as it seems- market tops are about excessive complacency and optimism that peak at certain times. This has to be repeated consistently because 'common' logic likes to talk otherwise.

The vectors are indicating a deep retrace is possible unless there is a substantial downward continuation from somewhere near here. This development would fit a large structure scenario. The moves may be at a higher degree. If the analytics seen thus far are pointing to this scenario, we will soon find out so for now best to stay open to large moves that fit well with target zones.

A retrace from 3214.25 will target the price level areas shown using the green arrow up. If a final move similar to the white arrows occurs, it will require a new projection calculation.

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/24/20 Larger Structure Already Here

Update:
2/24/20 01:40pm ES The leg below the gap down has alignments matching fib extensions from the red arrow (so far). Statistically- the 3213.75 low is in close proximity to the 'c' leg of an a-b-c down that was eluded to earlier (-0.3%) so watching that for a possible retrace back up.
Chart update 03:00 EST.

Update:
2/24/20 11:00am EST ES May have formed/be forming an a-b-c (1-2-3?) down at the 3223.5 target zone. The lower white arrow x 2.6 extension ends at 3223.5 and might be more consistent with a 'c' leg down of an a-b-c at this juncture. The white (incomplete) horizontal line at the lower left of the chart (3/c proximity) is the overlap of the megaphone center line from a previous structural analysis so that might have some significance short-term.

Global Trading Signal: Moving towards 'Optimism'

Original Post:
2/24/20 07:25am EST Looks like the market did not want to wait and the completion scenario is jumping ahead to the 'larger structure' referred to in the previous post. An assessment of likely new short-term target zones is shown below. There is a possibility that the price pattern is fulfilling a degree size at the weekly level which would be a very significant call- that scenario was briefly looked at last week (not yet posted) but may now require a more in-depth look.

Global Trading Signal: Looks 'Neutral/Optimistic' - in the face of declining prices that could be indicating more downside to come as fear may not be showing up right away at least in a significant percent of short-term trading decisions. Let's see if that aspect changes today.

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/22/20 Downside Price Completion Track

UPDATE!: 2/24/20 06:00am EST Looks like the market did not want to wait and the completion scenario is jumping ahead to the 'larger structure' referred to in the original post below. An assessment of likely new short-term targets is underway. There is a possibility that the price pattern is fulfilling a degree size at the weekly level which would be a very significant call- that scenario was briefly looked at last week but may now require a more in-depth analysis.

Global Trading Signal: Looks 'Neutral/Optimistic' - in the face of declining prices that could be indicating more downside to come as fear may not be showing up right away. Let's see if that aspect changes today.


Original Post:
The top flag is a low value orange so not as strong as the previous top on 1/25/20. By itself, it may complete sooner rather than later- however there is evidence to suggest these flags are part of a larger structure that is unfolding due to their frequency and also that they are contained in a very strong down-leg on the weekly advance-decline (nyad) MACD plot (see bottom chart)- so expectations going forward are for a fairly significant development but there are not enough fully formed patterns yet to effectively estimate conditions for a likely major (multi-year) top.

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/21/20 Top Flag And Related Price Plots

2/21/20 03:30pm EST. Global Trading Signal: 'Optimism/Neutral'

Note: With the frequency of orange tops in this recent (6-9 month) run-up in prices, the analytics are narrowing in on a possible large event coming up but perhaps not before some more upside in the market. It may be that the weekly advance-decline scenario is going to require a longer time-frame to complete and this will fit a much more substantial top being produced- if it goes in that direction. A better assessment will be facilitated after the current weekly print on the advance-decline (nyad) MACD today.

2/21/20 11:20am EST.  So far today there is follow-through to the downside and still showing some optimism in the global trading signal so not much fear in that indicator yet. The lower target zone at 3318.0 looks to still be a possibility sooner or later with the developments so far:

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing

2/20/20 Top Just Flagged!

2/21/20 11:20am EST.  A deeper study may be pointing to something significant occurring. So far today there is follow-through to the downside and still showing some optimism in the global trading signal so not much fear in that indicator yet.

2/21/20 07:46am EST.
Waiting for the market to confirm the top flag or otherwise (see the price charts lower down).

Global Trading Signal: signal is reading 'Elevated Optimism' (buying the dip with high expectation for a big move up now)

Another look at the weekly advance-decline for some perspective-

The MACD signal at -165 ('A') is very close to the value on 12 Nov 2018 (cursor cross-hairs) and most other critical values ('B') are at a similar juncture except the price decline at 'C' may not quite fit so far.

2/20/20 04:58pm EST. (corrected at 06:25pm)
The ES chart may be telling- the retrace so far has stopped a whisker short of the red arrow low and there may be another target pending at 3318.0 zone.

2/20/20 03:40pm EST.
Potential 'retrace' targets S&P 500: If the first leg down has completed, it could take more than a day or two to complete a deep retrace.

2/20/20 02:40pm EST.
Global Trading Signal: likely moving towards 'Optimism' which would support buying the dip but may only produce a retrace top. We will see how it plays out.

2/20/20 01:14pm EST.
Retrace has begun. Typically there would be a deep retrace of the first leg down. Anything more may invalidate the flag.

2/20/20 02:11pm EST. S&P Chart: (lower target zone hit- first leg?)

2/20/20 12:27pm EST.
Global Trading Signal: is changing aspect from 'Max Optimism' earlier today. (Less optimism often revolves around a short-term bottom)

2/20/20: 11:40am EST. Top flagged- strength is orange level 1 (previous top on 1/25/20 was orange level 2). Red flag is strongest.
The signal triggered after the 3396.75 zone mentioned below from 2/19/20 showed resistance.
A deep retrace up might be expected after the first leg down hits a target (as yet unknown).

2/20/20 10:00am EST. Market Open Update:
Global Trading Signal: 'Elevated Optimism' - patterns may be signaling the first phase of a 'Max Optimism' condition. ('Max Optimism' is required to establish a top)

Original post-
2/19/20 09:50pm EST.  Potential price alignments..

Notes on chart figures:

3396.75 zone - is the value from the daily plot (lower chart). Looks like that zone is creating some temporary resistance overnight. The remaining values are from using the up arrow (cyan) fib extensions terminating with 3412.00 zone. Let's see if they have any real meaning by the end of this week. Referring back to the advance-decline effect mentioned earlier- possibility of down or flat day today and then an up move tomorrow or next week (or sooner?) into a final price somewhere higher (3412.00 or more?).

The bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. 
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing