1/31/20 (EOD) New Low

A potential new low target calculation is shown on the 4 hr ES. A respectable positive divergence is also forming on the MACD so perhaps another retrace up is once again on the cards soon. The 5-wave move down, if completed now as part of an initial phase down after the top flag, would posit a more aggressive start to the overall downward correction process that could be unfolding. Once again, the weekly advance-decline on the NYSE (nyad) finished at -70% and looks ominous going forward. Lets leave it there for now. Have a great weekend..

2/1/20 update..we have re-inserted the alternate lower target from the outside longer leg as that cannot be excluded as a possibility .

2/2/20 .. please see the quick note below this chart we added on a bigger study.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.  (1/25/20 Top Flagged!)
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

Lots of chatter from various sources regarding the likelihood of a large degree decline in the market. We like to strip away opinion and look at specific data wherever there is established historical background. A weekly chart of the McClellan Summation Index using 50 ma and 200 ma might give us a clue. The more notable tops often occur when both moving averages are at or below the 2750 value and both moving down. That is not the current situation in the chart so we will be watching the plot to see if they both turn down at some point going forward. There was an approx. 11% drop in July of 2007 prior to the bigger top in October. We are currently at very similar levels to July 2007 so let's see how the current top flag analysis pans out.

1/31/20 More Targets II - The Sequel

Update..12:43pm EST. We don't normally do Elliott Wave studies as we only flag tops and wait for those to complete but the current moves look like a possible 5 wave process. We beg forgiveness from our EW analysts.

A case of deja-vu aka previous move or target completed? We still need to be convinced the upper target has quite hit but the tease is definitely on the cards. Will new month money be the kicker that gets us there? Lots of comments in many places talking about a crash lately may only keep the market buoyed up until - well most likely. a corrective move lower.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.  (1/25/20 Top Flagged!)
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/30/20 Target Hit - Games Continue

The ES did enter a target zone, stayed a while and decided to go visit low-town again. The 4 hour chart shows a potential positive divergence beginning in the MACD so new lows that don't move with high velocity leave the door open for more upside. We have yet to be convinced that the full retrace upward has completed.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.  (1/25/20 Top Flagged!)
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/28/20 Hope Moving Up the Slope?

"Best day yet in 2020 for the Stock Market" -yes we are back to positive developments as stocks regain lost ground. Phew- everyone wipe their brows. However, we would rather watch what exactly happens going forward. Has anything changed under the surface? Did the top detection analytics fail us? Let's see how expectations actually play out. There are gaps still to be filled in SVXY and VXX and the ES E-mini would look better with more price overlap. As stated yesterday the intra-week advance-decline on the NYSE (nyad) needed some pressure relief and today certainly was a good start at +220%. The retracement (if that's what it is) target zones are enumerated below. Once the 4 hr MACD histogram bars begin to shorten, we may see the magnitude of this move more clearly.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.  (1/25/20 Top Flagged!)
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/28/20 One Market / Events in the Cycle

MarketWatch has a really good article that discusses what is driving the market at this moment. We agree with their comments in the main but would like to expand on that. There is a tendency to attach current news events as a main culprit and instigator of market direction. We have observed through the years that it is more accurate to state that these things occur more or less concurrently. The market was already on a course prior to any event. The tipping point has much to do with the mathematics of the market machinery. It 'requires' a correction (large, medium, small) like putting your foot on the brakes when you see danger on the road ahead or when the vehicle starts to get out of control. Everything seems to move as one.

There are great studies done by many clever individuals on cycles in nature, weather, economies, politics etc. In particular Martin Armstrong has done brilliant work in these areas that is undeniable. No one is infallible so we also go with observation. We will use the information to try and keep a perspective on our trading strategy and not look to news events as being anything other than punctuations in the paragraph of the story but certainly not the story. Stay focused on the proven technicals as that is all that we really have that is anything close to being solid.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. (1/25/20 Top Flagged!)
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/27/20 Possible Low Zone for Retrace

The move down did hit some larger intra-weekly advance-decline values (nyad) and may require a relief in the form of a retrace up. The chart shows the late evening 4 hour ES E-mini S&P 500 and possible low price zone. Note the macd histogram bars that have begun to shorten in it's initial phase.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top. (1/25/20 Top Flagged!)
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/25/20 A Top Was Just Flagged!

A top signal is confirmed. We have posted a "V" as shown below and also an estimate on the signal strength (orange "V" so far) while watching for at least a medium degree top or possibly higher to develop. The DOW Industrials topped prior to the S&P 500 but the signal we detected gives a heads up on overall market beginning acceleration down. The top (primary) signature was observed on 1/23/20 with secondary confirmation yesterday. The weekly advance-decline (nyad) macd move down may require some relief in the form of a move up or sideways that also incorporates a price retrace sometime next week. As noted in a prior post, the 2009 low of 666.79 x 5 = 3333.95. The S&P high so far is 3337.77 which is just a few pennies above that number so we will see if that has any significance going forward but it will not override our established detection criteria.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/23/2020 Watch Still Active

No confirmed top signal has been detected as of yesterday but we would like to demonstrate a separate study regarding Pi (3.142) cycles. This may be new to some of you and we have only recently looked at these in more detail out of interest. The original work on Pi cycles has been developed by Martin Armstrong and we have taken it a step further to try and identify price turns at round number distances. In many instances round number results (actual days / Pi) often align with turns. The date 1/18/2020 is significant as you can see. It is not only the 8.6 yr cycle date given by Martin but is also notable because of the study we conducted enumerating the close separation in round numbers (actual days / Pi) from other dates. This will never be part of our top detection signal as that is a completely different parameter set but nevertheless it is of great interest as a broader criteria. To help make sense of how Pi cycles may work, we have noted that the constant Pi does relate to the geometry of a swinging pendulum. (please excuse the '3.1412' in image which should read '3.142')

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/22/20 Reminder

When a top signal is detected, we will post that quite clearly with a "V" as shown below and also with an estimate on the signal strength. We also should point out that on occasion the DOW Industrials may top separately from the S&P 500 but the signal we detect gives a heads up on overall market beginning acceleration down.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/21/20 SVXY New High

We have been tracking SVXY a leveraged (long) inverse vix futures etf as per post on 1/16/20. This is a related study while we are awaiting a top signal to be detected. We had a preliminary target of 69.73 and today we hit 69.79 so we shall see what the week brings regarding a top signal detection.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/17/20 Watch Continues..

The weekly advance-decline (NYAD) macd signal line went into negative territory today. Also the previous post which looked at the SVXY leveraged inverse vix closed slightly lower. The top signal analysis has not tripped as of today so continuing to monitor. Also of note, the S&P is close to 5 times the 2009 low of 666= 3330. A number we had conjectured some time back which may or may not have any significance. Of course, we don't front run numbers either, only top vector signal detections so we will see.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/16/20 Watch still active

We never front-run the bots that actually perform the top signal detection analysis but sometimes we like to get a possible progression perspective. Here is a chart snippet of SVXY (leveraged inverse vix) which shows two prior peak prints 1) and 2) and the relevant fractional extensions as they align with the daily macd print tops (filled ovals). The current print as of today may be approaching the number 1.0 using 0.0 and 0.38 as the extensions for the macd pk points i and ii (filled ovals). This is a very rough approximation as we are assuming these alignments with the macd. As stated, we wait for the bots to print out the top detection signal and do not use this estimate other than as a possibility.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/15/2020 Watch Active

The chart shows approximately where we might anticipate a top signal detection to occur more frequently (noted as 'watch' on chart). The upper plot is the weekly S&P and the lower is the macd for the advance-decline issues on the NYSE. A top signal detection can occur at any time (note one in April 2019) but often the larger top signals occur more frequently when the macd signal (blue) is at lower values. If the advance-decline macd moves higher from here then the watch will most likely have less relevance until some later date.

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.

Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.

1/14/20 Charting the Signals updated..

Jan 14 2020 Currently under a 'watch' with the analytical bots waiting for a top "V" (red or amber signal). This image includes historical signals back to Jan 2018. The red 'V' is indicative of the signal detection that has a greater value than an amber 'V' signal detection. The plot is of the S&P (upper plot) and the leveraged long vix instrument VXX (lower plot). The VXX chart gives a better indication of the trading momentum after the signal arrives. As we develop the blog, we will enumerate techniques for addressing the most likely S&P bottom zones (tops in VXX).

Our bots will flag a "V" when they see a top.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report
This information is for entertainment purposes only. Financial loss can occur from investing.