News Of The Market's Demise Is Badly Timed

2:00pm EST: Chances are good that this next leg will expand the diamond as a leg did previously, confirming the structural construction as on-going: expanding up and out over the existing trend line and down to a new apex low. This next decline could be it for the apex if that's what it is. Daily inverse-VIX closings are still in a down trend and the vspike indicator is in a deeper down trend and showing a small turn down currently in the live market. Need to see how that closes today.

12:03pm EST: VIX 25.31 zone looks like a potential fib target - it's just a few percent lower down. UVXY is filling it's gap now and some overlap/delay could be expected just to make sure all the inventory is covered. Today is also day 8 in a 8-0-8 frequency. The target date has a +/- 1 tolerance so this estimate also includes tomorrow 3/18/22. UVXY now has an overlap fib ext. target at 16.31 zone a tiny percent lower beyond the gap.

original post:
Yes- there is most likely a decline to finish the structure but the likely slingshot back up will delight everyone. Longer term, either a megaphone or diamond is printing. The scale of it and long term wavelengths say much more time to go yet. Panics will be happening but they do not make for a long term top.

Live charts: short-term- a turn signal [market down] is expected in proximity to current price levels. Longer term megaphone or diamond is nowhere near completion. UVXY has replaced VXX in comparison usage as VXX no longer has issuance for new purchases and as such is not reliable. UVXY is an ETF as opposed to VXX which is an ETN. ETN's have intrinsic susceptibilities to shutting down occasionally and are generally regarded to be avoided. Specifically UVXY does not normally complete it's down legs with gaps open. Only occasionally will it make a terminal up move leaving a gap in it's wake. 

Commentary: praying the war cycle does not also have another down leg in it as sometimes there is conjunction between cycles. Please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.

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Possible New Leg Down Setting Up

EOD: Diamond construction sloping trend line beckons and aligns with fib extension targets at ES 4371.5 / 4422.25 zones. Potential short term local '8-0-8' count tomorrow regarding a frequency count so could be getting close to a high printing at or just above the diamond construction trend line.

original post:
Probability that a new leg down may print soon better than 50% odds.

"World stocks recover on Ukraine talks, Fed hopes buoy U.S. yields" - sorry, we wish that were true but readers of this blog understand whipsaws do not define reliable structural patterns- wavelengths do and they are saying the market is well inside the end-game at a higher degree. Still lots of room for down moves and retraces up to keep everyone alert as is expected at larger degree tops.

If the potential leading diagonal down '1' thru '5' retraces 95% [ES June17 4316 zone], that would be important to note as it likely confirms another wave 1 down is in from 3/11/22. Regardless, a turn signal down soon has a total decline potential larger than the previous ones since 1/13/22.

Commentary: please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.

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New Analysis Showing Another Outcome

The previous assessment that a medium-term diamond top was printing is now being questioned. Rather than attempting to fit an appropriate structure, a new analysis looked deeper at wave lengths and frequencies that hold obvious merit. This is part of the on-going re-evaluations at the higher degrees especially when developments appear to be moving away from expected outcomes within certain time-frames.

Whatever the structure ends up being, wave alignments are signaling a potential earlier termination to events in the market at least in the medium term. The next expected decline is still anticipated after a turn signal [mkt down] prints. If no signal prints within the next several sessions then other routes will need to be looked at.

Note the last downward conjunction of the two frequencies shown was approx. mid-2017 which was only a few months prior to the catastrophic collapse in inverse VIX derivative 'XIV' which was destroyed at that time. Also note these are not random wavelengths but are based around the Pi constant which we have eluded to in prior posts as having historical proven significance in the market oscillations as well as it's obvious presence in time cycles in the physical world. This is always a best estimate based on observations, they do however align with other wavelength calculations all the way back to 1995.

Commentary: please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.

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Likely Will Not See Anything Like This Again Soon- The Great Unwind

Precise, predictable symmetry is almost uncanny and has been ongoing since the end of Oct '21 almost like a draftsman's design. All trend lines holding precisely. The diamond is building like an architect designed it. Amazing. Still not sure how it is holding but here it is! Nothing to do with world events. This has been in process since end of October '21.

Bottom chart is from 3/2/22.

Live status: Three touches on the sloping trend [A]-#9-#12 could be it with a turn signal imminent. The v.spike indicator continues to plow lower. It has not mis-directed yet. Closing numbers said more down to continue. Also adding greater numbers to the count since this declining sub-leg began which will effectively create an even larger time span on the next move down compared to those already in. We shall have to see how much. Increasing possibility this next move will create an apex bottom to the diamond with a reaction back up towards the center of it by late '22.

Commentary: please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.

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Even More On Target

EOD: Market hit a small oversold ratio which leaves room for another strike higher next week but it may not be much higher and the potential decline count is now approaching 15 +/- 1. Previous decline count potentials were '12' [1/13/22] and '9' [2/10/22] so this is looking higher degree. The alternate is that we keep going down without any more turn signals. That seems less likely - another possibility is that next week sees more down as the closing numbers are saying more of the same [down]. Then perhaps another attempt higher meanwhile adding more numbers to the count. Then comes the turn signal [market down] with an even larger time span on the decline. We shall have to see how much.

2:47pm EST: FORGET THE NEWS CYCLE AS FAR AS THE MARKET. We are all hoping for better news, of course but the market is fixed in frequency and wavelength and it is not saying 'go time' yet for moves higher [option for one more small move perhaps on Monday- and that would fit an even larger micro-count inside the decline]. Some inventory gaps are not yet completely filled and that would also fit with one more push up to finish the waves.

Witness the opening pop and drop that main stream media attributed to something 'said' by a foreign govt. leader. No, that's not it but there was a frequency alignment exactly at that time coinciding with a wavelength micro target. The market is not driven by news other than the occasional whipsaw. Nothing humans do or say changes the frequencies [as disturbing as that may seem to some of us, it is demonstrated time and again]

Original post:
Nothing fundamental has changed- still in the target zone and now closer to a couple of date frequencies that often are in proximity to a turning point. More days up were expected to increase the overall decline count when it arrives and to complete the associated indicator criteria. There is the option for one more strike higher after today's highs are hit but time is running out and the longer the retrace attempt, the more downside days will be added to undo all that inventory that's being bought.

Chart is from a couple of days back but only whipsaws since then and the pre-open print is still in the expected zone-anything much higher will be a bonus when it does let go. Inventory gaps are the attractant currently, once they are filled, there won't be much to hold it up. A turn signal down will be the cue. Week-ending often brings in short term buyers particularly around date frequencies when some optimism shows up.

Most likely- after this next low hits, a fairly decent-sized reaction back up to mid point on the diamond is expected going forward as a weekly positive divergence is developing on breadth. Once the mid-point +/- is attained later this year, could be some fireworks unless the structure morphs into something else prior to Sept '22. 

Mid '23 is also on the wavelength charts but not sure if that is a new ath or a lower high from a retrace attempt after the diamond lets go and hits it's downside targets.

Commentary: please, if you can, try to send anything to help those under attack right now. Thank you.

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Setting Up For The Next Leg Down

Odds favor the pullback developing a turn signal to move the market down.

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Set Up Has Favorable Odds

3/7/22 11:09am EST: Cash needed to catch up with overnight futures lows. Price and volatility patterns both are developing the potential to print a turn signal [mkt down] soon.

original post:
Live Status: Odds favor one more leg down on the daily to expand the diamond as shown. A leg down of an expanding size will likely require either a volatility or an index turn signal in the coming sessions. Eventually, the market will not go gently into a 'medium term nap' - as compared to a high degree long term decline but, as indicated, the correction may prove to be quite large and contrast it from the 2020 decline.

Since economic drive / investment forces are now in what is known as a 'private wave' [which means that individual, group and corporate forces are beginning to outweigh government sponsored 'easing' and other inventions]- some historical seemingly 'normal' market behaviors will likely come under challenge so being even more on point analytically is required. The current stepping decline is a good example and very unusual since very few volatility turn signals have printed and volatility values have remained relatively attenuated. Hence, the impeccable 'diamond' symmetry.

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