Breadth Is Now Seriously Depressed

12/1/21 5:15AM EST: Expectation of another high attempt appears to be underway especially since the inverse vix created a positive divergence as shown. As long as the analysis is complete and parameters are correctly placed, the projection towards an early December accelerating decline appears to be setting up. Lots of blogs seem to be waving their arms which would normally be a contrarian warning that more upside is definitely going to happen so we shall see if the move up extends until everyone gets on board the 'Santa Rally'- there's no such thing of course except in the mind. No matter what it looks like. Years when the timeline is favorable do create that impression. Half-span targets are a very useful guide towards where best to employ turn signals and breadth measurements and they are subject to correct interpolation so some flexibility is necessary. Occasionally, the numbers hit with uncanny accuracy. Success is measured where the zone can be identified on the expected side of the subsequent market move. As far as numbers are concerned, the 11/22/21 [2 x half-span] time target that printed the SP-500 high and kick-started the current decline movement has not yet been invalidated.

Additional-


Original post:
Reiterating- market moves have absolutely nothing at all to do with any cause-effect correlations the news media attempts to tie to the market [apart from some tiny percent whipsaws]. The timeline developments are in control and always have been along with key criteria presented in posts no matter what it looks like in the news. As previously stated, events and market moves belong to the same animal ultimately- the progression of human and natural causes along cyclical paths. Likely a terminal top is still some distance away but a correction locally looks to be a confident expectation of some size possibly pivoting around the next highs that are about to print. If an event does not materialize [top] on 12/3 then the following week could see an SP-500 high on 12/7 with a volatility uptick very soon after. 

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Structure Likely Still To Conclude- Projection

Structures do not often conclude in the absence of cash at certain price points and a gap has now printed including a 'missing' run at the 4717 zone in ES [cash].  Additionally, another half-span target looks to be the focus for Fri 12/3/21 zone [one of two or more to come]. So far the half-span targets have all initiated events so expectation is that 12/3/21 zone [or the next one] may also create an event [high] to conclude the structure. It is the next to last of two data points that would fit in the local range that includes all the data points / target dates so far so confidence is better than average that one of these will create an event. Breadth has all but disintegrated on the daily time-frame and seriously underwhelming at the weekly level. Some relief at the daily might take ES to the 4717 zone +/- to complete the structure. Weekly will need a major sustained positive to crawl out of it's hole which may come later when a corrective decline completes and positive divergence again builds for breadth and another run up into first quarter 2022. [-under review]

Additional: Likely this was a reaction to a top [or the local top] in SP-500 on the 11/22 half-span target date that was posted on previously. A potential [lower] top in inverse volatility has yet to print [SVXY] at the next half-span target for volatility / derivatives. This would be typical behavior at higher degree tops. The time target zone between now and early December is calculated to be a critical zone for a volatility target point to print. This is where a larger and more sustained decline could commence. A few dates are printing between 11/30, 12/3 and 12/14 so a watch on a turn signal is important. SP-500 high will be of less importance when the volatility target date kicks in as that will probably become the control.

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Final Waves Continue To Overlap Until Conclusion

EOD: Looks like the tentative turn signal called at the close on 11/22 was a medium confidence signal at that location [high in SP-500 was also called]. Strangely enough 11/25 came in as a target date but was discounted because it was a holiday so no cash trading- apparently, these half-span dates cannot be defeated if futures are printing when calculated correctly as demonstrated currently.

10:24am EST: Breadth is way oversold so likely a retrace up to a turn signal possibly on 11/30 target. If this continues for much longer without resolution- a larger degree top may be forming, Weekly summation index is beginning to print a roll-over pattern. That was not anticipated and is concerning.

Looks very much like a symmetrical expanding triangle with target dates defining price boundary enclosing points in the structure so far. Leg C-D is typically violent in these structures which is how it's printing presently. Optionally and slightly more likely is that this is a diamond top/head-and-shoulders with the central leg/neck line printing now OR a simple A-B-C top.

Waiting for a turn signal confirmation. Next target- 11/30. Rarely, a sustained decline can commence in the absence of a signal. Note that target dates are continuing to satisfy event expectations therefore current confidence is above 67% and increasing. Oh- apparently today's decline is tied to the new Covid variant not the fact that a small-ish top has been under construction since 11/5.  These types of correlations are no surprise, cycles in everything often move in consort but popular press is quick to correlate a causation that is not the whole story at all.

A retrace into 11/30 +/- is likely unless a decline has commenced minus a high confidence turn signal. One could materialize at the close if a decent retrace completes today.

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Breadth Signal Level Is Flashing

Notice the two square wave peaks in the NYAD MACD plot print from mid October '21 on the second chart. That shows great confidence and complacency in buying at these levels. The red signal is at the second lowest value of the year so far. Weekly summation index is beginning to roll over and the daily has already rolled and is in an advanced state of movement lower. Conditions look very favorable for a turn signal to appear anywhere between now and 11/30 followed soon after with a minor decline. A larger degree top is expected to arrive in the first quarter of  '22.

Higher prices deeper into the retrace area may be required before a valid turn signal shows up.

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Retrace Likely Will See A Turn Signal

EOD: Nothing has changed in the near-term outlook. A turn signal down is very likely expected to appear soon. Most likely a day or so after another high. A lower high is the most likely scenario in SP-500 cash while lots will be cooing about the 'rally' up into the holiday.

Original post-
Short Term- a small top could confirm in here with declining prices headed towards late May/June '21. A bigger top first draft time target is expected early '22 [Jan/Feb].

Commentary- at the risk of sounding arrogant, nothing in developments reported in the news such as the appointment of Powell, bond-buying, corporate reports or the weather in Bali will ever change the patterns that are bound to complete their intentions. This is a conclusion drawn from thousands of hours of observations. The market is larger than any event or the intentions of those in 'control'. It has to go where it is bound. It is not a wavering creature though it may look that way often especially if the critical underpinnings are not analyzed correctly... and particularly will not matter if the analysis here has prematurely computed patterns and data.

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Critical Projection Update

EOD: The odds for a cash top in SP-500 just went up. A tentative turn signal has also printed so far. Need to wait for all the numbers to come in as the markets report them. Modest turn signals have printed at the candle ends off the market highs after a few days and that may not be a reliable placement so patience is required. It is possible they are defining a structure rather than a completion/reversing acceleration [this positioning is not typical for a turn signal to be reliable]. Volatility may be printing a contracting triangle as it certainly did NOT confirm today's move up in the market so that could be the structure that's printing. Triangles can break up or down so have to be patient. Breadth is very weak.

12:58pm EST:  Corrective 3 waves down to ES 4697.75 zone so far.

12:30pm EST: Rejection near fib 100% could be significant given the target date re-calculation shown below.

11:20am EST: Re-calculation shows the date was off by 1 day for the SP-500 potential top so 11/19 [+1 trading session] should calculate to 11/22. The arrival date was not included into the computation. Volatility and it's derivatives have not moved down yet. If this is an interim top inside the larger leg, the calculation will require another adjustment for a later target date. Ultimately looking for a turn signal in any case.

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Updated Outlook For 11/22/21 Through 11/30/21

11:20am EST: Re-calculation shows the date was off by 1 day for the SP-500 potential top so 11/19 [+1 trading session] should calculate to 11/22. The arrival date was not included into the computation. Volatility and it's derivatives have not moved down yet. If this is an interim top inside the larger leg, the calculation will require another adjustment for a later target date. Ultimately looking for a turn signal in any case.

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Set Up For Impending Minor Decline

UPPER: SET UP FOR IMPENDING MINOR DECLINE [11/5/21 is the target date for a potential volatility bottom]. Dates 11/22 through 11/30 are optional dates for other volatility bottoms/index highs/turn down signal.  Note- a decline of relative minor degree is anticipated. A target date of Feb '22 is the potential for a much higher degree top to commence. Also the indexes/volatility instruments all have their own target dates which can differ as noted [typical at tops].

LOWER: REPOST OF CHART FROM PRE-OPEN **[11/19/21 is the target date for potential SP-500 high]: ** 11/19 in error, should be 11/22

reprint from Friday's close-EOD: no turn signal print today but SP-500 may have completed the leg up as **11/19/21 calculates to it's half span [x 2] on the leg up beginning 10/4 and also on the higher degree leg up beginning 5/12/21. A turn signal in the coming sessions will help to confirm.

also NOTE that the higher degree 1/2 span date referenced, 5/12/21 gives a potential decline price target area towards May '21 prices.

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Overlapping Moves Have Been Typical At Every Leg Up Completion

EOD: no turn signal print today but SP-500 may have completed the leg up as 11/19/21 calculates to it's half span [x 2] on the leg up beginning 10/4 and also on the higher degree leg up beginning 5/12/21. A turn signal in the coming sessions will help to confirm.

11:04am EST: Looking at SP-500 cash, it has a potential near-term half-span price target for 11/19/21 [today] which may give it a higher or lower close but potentially complete it's movements as far as advancing at this smaller degree. A turn signal down confirmation follow-up will be required in the sessions going forward. In that case, volatility derivatives may still have a little room to test their highs/lows before giving up the ghost [11/22 - 11/30].

Original post-
The most important elements at the moment are the half-span near-term time targets which are 11/5 [11/5 is currently holding in cash] and 11/22 through 11/30 or the closest trading sessions. It should be noted that the breadth MACD 'signal' line on the daily [and weekly] charts has declined significantly. Likely a near-term top if it develops fully with expectation for a very long-term top in February 2022. Turn signal down watch is in effect from now until 11/30/21.

Volatility may have pegged especially in derivatives [perhaps pegged at top and bottom or very close to it] while the indexes wander around to new highs/lower highs which is also typical whenever getting close to leg completions up of any degree.

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Projection Update

EOD: No turn signal but breadth is accelerating to greater depths below the zero datum.

Weekly breadth and daily breadth MACD SIGNAL LINES are well below the zero datum with target dates in the 'heads-up' zones. 

Reminder: not likely a terminal top just yet: [weekly summation index would be better above zero- it is still below zero heading up but daily is rolling and likely going to try to slow it by giving it a nudge down currently with a small-size pullback - possible 'pivot']. This action would be typical MACD behavior as it moves up from lows on any time frame but it is more significant on the weekly charts.

One caveat- however. There is an extremely large degree vector in play from late 2008 with a second half-span converging into the current time window / end-of-year / Feb 14 2022 so that needs to be considered. The Feb 14 2022 time window also aligns with a 'Pi' constant date increment that is very close to 1.5 x 3141.6 [Pi x 1000] calendar days from 3/2/2009 +/- 2 weeks. This could be significant. Whole number and half increment multipliers [1.5] often have meaning in the 'Pi' time measurement world **.

**Acknowledgment to Martin Armstrong who first identified this cycle relationship some years previously.

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Next Event Window- Target Date 11/22/21

EOD: Tentative closing data shows a turn down signal. The numbers need to be confirmed as everything gets reported throughout the rest of the evening. However.. the numbers are fading from optimal and are less likely to validate a turn signal down. More waiting is probably in order.

Original post-
Previous event target 11/5 began an observable movement. Supporting alignments seem to be converging. Not likely to be a terminal top just yet. Watching daily closing price vectors for a turn down signal. Chart: volatility derivatives often give the best patterns regarding the overall market.

Summation index [daily] MACD print has gone from +13% above the red signal line on 11/11 to less than +3% on 11/16 so it is getting closer to crossing below also supporting this outlook date.

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Second Turn Signal Down Could Be Setting Up [Waiting For The Close]

1:50pm EST: The earlier turn signal that lasted for a few hours has faded and that would not be a surprise. Most often the breadth MACD signal line needs to spend a few sessions in the below zero [brrr] climate before a continuation down in the market ensues. This will also potentially encourage the summation index to roll over some more and set it up with additional negative divergence on it's MACD and possibly begin to move the STOCH down from it's highs as well.
 
Original post-
A second turn signal down is showing intent intra-day but it isn't required since one already has printed on 11/10/21 right after the gap down on Feb '20 was closed in SVXY. This is not likely to be a large degree terminal top. If breadth signal on NYAD MACD daily (12,*26*, 9) the - '26' [red signal] parameter prints less than zero, then that will support a potential impending decline. Intra-day it is printing below zero. It could go lower and then pop up a little while remaining close to zero prior to the acceleration of a decline if that's how this plays out.

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11/5/21 Target Is Reacting - Down Side Target First Draft

EOD: A mid-sized turn up in volatility [market looks to go down] did show up at the close. Since it is late in the leg, a retrace up is probable before the decline continues- also daily breadth would look better if it were printing a negative signal line.

2:10pm EST: If current vectors hold through the close, a turn signal [down] will print. A retrace up is entirely feasible after that prior to the proper decline materializing. The closing prices will confirm or not.

There are alternate target dates at 11/22/21 thru 11/30/21. More time may be required to roll over the summation index daily MACD. A turn signal down is still missing. It may be delayed or it may not materialize [a rare event considering the current market patterns].

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Nested Expanding Diagonal Triangles -Target Plots.

Two nested expanding diagonals: leading or ending. Option favors ending based on timing mark 11/5 and 15th weekly negative breadth signal line printing [a record for negative divergence in time]. Also summation index [daily] at highs with MACD histogram bars declining. Prices could create a range or some other smaller oscillations including printing a new high as shown on the chart. Bottom line- looks like a turn signal down in the market is likely forthcoming. Probably will not be the terminal top which may come later on [in early '22]. If the expected decline materializes, vectors are pointing to April/May '21 price zone before a large bounce brings it back to the highs and then potentially even more upside.

Chart 1 posted around noon.
Chart 2 posted around 2:45pm

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Finally Got a Likely Structure With Target Projections

EOD: Price did bounce off the fib target 4711 and is testing the center of the expanding triangle. Breadth closed in deep negative weekly territory again. Probably nearing a mid-size corrective to create energy for new highs and to shake more than a few out of position. Now into the time window expectation for an event- first draft: 11/5 through 11/9 and VXX has printed a second higher daily black candle off a new low but no turn signal print just yet. Note- that the small expanding triangle also has a fib projection to ES 4711 from it's take off 0-50%-100% [4711]. The higher targets remain until a turn signal prints.

2:25pm EST: The center line of the expanding triangle could offer support/resistance.

Updated 1200pm EST: If a c-d leg is printing, it could move quickly to the lower trend line.

Original post-
Most likely an ending diagonal. VIX is barely making new local lows and none [intra-day] since 6/29/21. Breadth negative divergence has not been seen like this as far as the length of time at such low levels- not a good sign.

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Still Printing Wave c/3- Revised Targets

11:10am EST: ES 4678 is a secondary fib extension target in c/iii zone. Could be printing a diagonal expanding triangle to get to that price zone. These types of moves will likely assist in the summation index rolling over at the daily degree towards a completion move up in price near 11/5 - 11/9 time window. A double-top may be printing in the inverse VIX currently but there is room for it to move higher [inverse vix higher --> market higher]. Estimated first draft price targets for the next pullback are April - June '21 window. That would be roughly in the 38 - 50% pullback from the current zone of the leg that took off from Sept '20. Seems like a pessimistic projection but those are potential numbers according to patterns and vectors unless it's way off but keeping it there for now. Changes to the outlook will be posted accordingly.

Original post-
Anywhere in the shaded zone will do. VIX will print a zig-zag down of two equal legs [take- off from 9/20/21] when it arrives at 13.71 so that could be a target just below it's current position. This would also indicate an a-b-c down in VIX. If there are more legs to the structure, that will be soon apparent. There seem to be a few price target alignments occurring close to the 11/5 - 11/9 time window target.

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Volatility Derivative About To Overlap Gap from 2020 While Closing In On Long-Term Time Target

EOD: Deep into c/3 target zone and hits a fib alignment extension. Note, this leg up has no real structure yet so could be a corrective a-b-c up. Price movements through 11/5 to 11/9 should give a better clue.

3:00pm EST: ES is still in the wave '3' target zone as enumerated in this post from 10/29. Appears to be making hard work of it as per the last several weeks.

Original post-
The short-term [inverse] VIX print is diverging from inverse volatility derivative SVXY. They are more often sync'd to each other. This is occurring in proximity to a long-term time target as well as several continuous weeks of a negative breadth pattern on the weekly print MACD [NYAD]. Watching closely for a turn signal down in the market. Not much else to add until that happens. Even if inverse VIX and SVXY do eventually sync. up or diverge positively or negatively, it will not change the time target window.

Most likely, this will not be a terminal top but could be a decent sized correction of the 'pivot' variety [potential to May '21 price zone] that often occur prior to most larger degree tops.

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Likely Wave '3' Leg Up Near Completion

2:56pm EST: Inverse volatility SVXY has a gap down from 2/21/20 which is now partially filled [approx 50%]. This was always a target zone. It remains to be seen if SVXY goes higher to overlap it in total. There may be temporary resistance in this zone. A turn signal up in volatility is still required to print with supporting criteria particularly when the summation index daily MACD rolls over. Breadth has declined on the weekly chart to an adequate extent to set up a decline at any place now. 11/5 - 11/9 is a first potential timing window for an event.

Original post-
Just hitting inside the shaded target area above the minimum [4609] which likely qualifies as a wave 3 printing now. Daily summation is still in an ascending mode which also supports the non-completion of the total structure up in the chart. Any large turn signal will need to be considered as a potential 'c' leg completion in an 'a-b-c' up structure if that does occur in the coming sessions. There is some evidence to suggest a corrective 'c' leg may become the small top rather than a wave '5' which would finish much higher up - [that may still happen].

A more local 'half-span' calculation is coming in at 11/19/21 so the November target time window may be narrowing to a focused date for a turn up in volatility. At a larger degree, there were targets 11/5 - 11/9 so these could all be potential wave top zones at various increasing degrees as far as time windows but still inside November so far. There are other dates available in a pattern projection even into early '22 that are more likely to present a terminal top. As usual, it will require valid strength turn signals to give a heads-up on directional changes that ultimately determine the pattern structure in total. Turn signals, as they occur, will be posted.

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