Potential Incomplete Bottoming Process

9/26/21 Update: Lower Chart- Bollinger Band study on SVXY + DOW overlay from 2020 top and current. Two big take-aways are: a] the SVXY MACD is pretty much at the same numerical level for both years turning down b] volatility turn signals <up> have printed on multiple occasions in the last two months. Normally an average of one every 12-18+ months has printed. This set up looks like it's about to get extremely interesting.

Commentary: it has been noted in the past close to tops that there are some 'crash' concern articles suddenly appearing followed a time later by 'going to the moon' analyses. That is being observed currently. Just a behavior observation, not a flag. Some distance to go yet but may not be huge to the upside. We shall have to see.

Original post-
The ratio of price difference in the spread across high and low ranges of indexes and instruments in the overall picture may be giving a clue. The daily closing prices are mostly inside the bounded boxes shown. Look at the ratio across all the highs together and then the lows together as groups and the geometry of the box they land in at their lows prior to the 2020 top. Now look at a geometric box surrounding the recent pullback here in 2021. The obvious size and ratio difference may well be a clue to why the terminal top is some distance away. There likely needs to be a tighter ratio on indexes and derivatives at the lows. Whether the bounding box will be lower may not be relevant just so long as it can be seen to approach a percentage closer to what is considered normal. Of course, this could not have any meaning but it should be pointed out as it does fit with more recent analyses.

If there is a price acceleration in either direction that takes out the range quickly then a new analysis will be required.

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Big Investment Houses Likely Will Not Spook You

EOD: On the day, there is a possible oversold condition on VXX. It is just a few pennies away from it's low which most of the time indicates it will take it out but the market is not in a 'typical' position right now. The coming sessions will give a better clue as to whether it's going to take it's lows out. The closing breadth printed another weekly negative signal.

2:37pm EST: There is a gap higher on SVXY from the decline in early 2020 at 63.48 which is nominally 10% above the current price assuming there's no overlap. That has been on the radar for a while and it certainly could be a target zone as volatility derivatives are currently pushing the prior lows / highs. It is not required however, in 2015, a high retest left a long-term gap open before a terminal decline in SVXY under similar circumstances where an attenuated price pattern was also in play.

Original post-
Listening to one of the very biggest investment 'houses' in the USA recently, the message was clearly business as usual - some corrections equals 'normal' on a monthly basis. Some may get larger. This, of course, is the safe message. If they had real super-knowledge from the decades of investment education passed down from manager to manager, they will keep it close to their chests. Who exactly is going to cause a run on investor withdrawals and who would risk being wrong about that event even happening?

After decades of listening to main stream pundits, managers, 'expert' market timers, the conclusion is that if they 'know', the secret is safe with them [there is a tiny number of reliable analysts- no disrespect to them]. The market does not give up it's secrets easily.

Still on track for a summation index to peak somewhere after a retest of low ranges has happened. A terminal top is still in view even if new highs in the market print. Watching volatility derivatives VXX and SVXY to see if they print lower / higher numbers respectively. A new analysis will be posted in that case.

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Multi-Decade Related Charts Are Flashing

12:36pm EST: If the vectors continue as they are so far into the close, there is the possibility of a retest of the low range in the coming sessions before the continuation up restores. This is somewhat supported by the data on the summation index [daily] that is still printing 'bottoming' values and needs to yet gain upward traction and it's own rollover later on that typically flags a potential top.

Commentary: "Investors Ignoring Fed Tapering". The "ignoring" part is hardly an endorsement for charging ahead say in the case of ignoring gravity while approaching a cliff edge. Regarding the Fed- those decisions are already made for them by conditions. The same conditions exist in the trading environment. When one tapers, the other may also 'taper'- however the speed of the other 'taper' may approach super-sonic under the right conditions.

Original post-
ARMS index is not typically looked at but that doesn't negate looking at it another way. Readers of this blog will appreciate the way an index can be displayed by using only a moving average and discerning a pattern of behavior over the long haul.

The 200ma on the ARMS index is plotted below and the overlay is the summation index / sp-500 moving ratio. This is an unconventional approach but the repeating pattern of continuous shrinking right triangles is unmistakable. That pattern is not a 'quirk' of data alone- it appears to have consistency related to the market situation that all other large studies agree with.

For example- since 2013 the 200ma on the summation weekly has dropped 15% while SP-500 has increased 119% so a 'shrinkage' in [summ. / SP-500 ] is expected but cannot all be accounted for solely on the increase in SP-500. In the case of a sole increase in SP-500 with a level summation index, the last triangle should be of larger amplitude and the top closer to 1145 - 1150 not 1125 which may not sound like much but is statistically relevant to the decline that's on-going currently at a larger degree.

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Re-Visit Summation Index Supports Current Scenario

11:51am EST: Intraday vectors shows a one-sided support for a move up which does not demonstrate a 'turn signal' up at a higher degree. A companion signal is required to accomplish that set up. This still leaves open the expectation that a topping process cannot be ruled out whether or not higher market prices print later. Let's see how the day's vectors close as they rarely finish the day with similar ratios to those at mid-day. After gaps close, there will likely be a modest retest of the lower ranges. A turn signal up, if it is going to occur, may be more likely to show up then but it is more likely not going to print in order for a top to complete. Could be range-bound for another week or two while summation index tries for a terminal pop upwards. Please note that 'Fed Speak' etc. will likely not change the ultimate destination- it only ever occasionally creates a whipsaw up or down and then the market completes whatever it intended to do up to that point.

Note that week-ending 9/10/21 printed an extended-size [x3] *companion pair* volatility turn signal up on the weekly chart. The associated low prices in volatility derivatives since then have yet to be taken out.

*  A 'companion pair' descriptor is associated with a higher degree turn signal. In this case it supports alignments just described towards a market decline pending.

Original post-
In yesterday's post it was observed that alignments were most likely occurring and that in order to complete the picture the summation index needed a secondary peak. A possible route to that is demonstrated below-

The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Updated Weekly Vectors Are At Target And Vix Spike Is Aligning

1:53pm EST: Market is attempting to reverse up to close gaps and likely finish the leg. A turn signal up will be a sign that this is getting closer. So far today, the vectors appear to support the attempt but a few more sessions may be required to confirm.

Original post-
The original fibonacci extension used from the 3/23/20 bottom was short. Looking at an extension for VXX: [wave 3] = 2 x [wave 1] now appears to be coincident with the converging pattern below. This is occurring while breadth is printing steady negative values and other surrounding criteria are at significant zones. Summation index may need to print a secondary peak on the weekly chart which could happen in the coming weeks as the market fills gaps created on this recent decline. There is always room for new market highs to print but they may be short-lived if they diverge from increasing volatility.

Vix has spiked to 25.5 which was close to spike at 27.5  previously on 5/12/21 and often, as a pair. they flag at the beginning and end of a terminating bullish sequence somewhere about 50-70% up the overall leg particularly when they align with the declining [VectorSpike] indicator as shown below [note- 'roll over' accelerates down almost exactly in the May date window of the first VIX spike].

This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Next All Time High Zone May Herald A Scare Or Three

12:17pm EST: Per the projection a few days back, SVXY [and the market] look to be positioning for a very short term low before striking to a new all time high zone. SVXY 50ma daily lies at 55.77 which is 2% lower than current intra-day- so watching that zone seems appropriate. Look out after a new high happens. Potential reversion back to May 2021 lows and possibly November 2020 price zone before the next leg up initiates. 

Unimpressive market price advances vs. moderately impressive weekly breadth declines often precludes a pull back. The red curve printed from 2019 on the MACD looks parabolic though a data analysis of the plot has not been conducted. Parabolic moves, especially of this size, do not end well when they hit a tipping point

See: the lower chart on this post for additional observations

See Critical Long-Term UPDATED 4/12/2021 Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report

Tickling The Bear May Not End Well

11:19 am EST: Signs that vectors are moving towards a very short-term bottom for SVXY / SP-500 may finally be printing. If that occurs, then looking for a higher completion to be followed potentially by a deep reversion. Either way- a higher market completion is expected soon. Daily breadth intra-day today is (NYAD SUM [macd param])  -200, yesterday's was -70 so let's see how that closes today and on tomorrow's week-ending number. Those values are definitely warning flags moving forward especially when converted to weekly data. Week ending coming in to this one was already -200.

Original post:
Price advances are unimpressive compared to breadth declines which is often a key 'tell'. Cumulative breadth [lower chart] has flattened for a few months and is clearly converging on the sp-500 - the size is telegraphing a pending big move. 

See Critical Long-Term UPDATED 4/12/2021 Review Here
The bots will flag here when they see a top. (1/25/20, 2/20/20, 4/9/20)
This Information Is For Entertainment Purposes Only. Financial Loss Can Occur From Investing.
Our favorite go to site- McVerry Report